"Four Tubes in a Row "by Mike Cohn, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com.
AS CISCO SYSTEMS, Intel and other U.S. tech titans spearhead another economic recovery, I wonder how long Silicon Valley and the U.S. tech realm will reign as the world's preeminent force for business growth and innovation. Scores of tech watchers have debated the question over the past couple decades, and time-honored "Whither Silicon Valley?" stories by the media surface every 5 or 10 years. (I plead guilty to writing a couple myself, including "Tech Industry Struggles To Cope With Its Losses" in USA Today, when many thought the growth of the New Economy and the dot.com boom would never end. It's fascinating to see everyone's observations on tech a decade ago.)
IN THE NEW global era, the valley's legendary economy may well have peaked and likely won't return to its glory days, when the defense, semiconductor, and computer industries rocked the global economy. No great industry lasts forever, and their lifespans stretch 50 to 60 years or so before they start slowing. Doesn't mean the valley will fade like downtown Detroit, as the U.S. auto industry matured and foreign automakers stormed the gates. For sure, the next huge thing in nanotech, biotech and clean tech will keep armies of U.S. engineers and scientists employed for decades. But with the juggernaut of globalization in tech research & manufacturing & e-commerce, with the cross-border spread of the global workforce and knowledge economy, can't imagine the valley spawning another generation of legendary companies the likes of FMC, Fairchild Semiconductors, Lockheed Missiles and Space, Hewlett-Packard, Intel, IBM in San Jose, Cisco Systems, Oracle, Google, EBay, and others. You pick: the rock-solid revenue and earnings of those companies, or the helium-like valuations of the whole Web 2.0 universe?
THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION of the world -- which tech visionary and author Kevin Kelly has called "a Tectonic upheaval in our commonwealth" in his New Rules for a New Economy book and blog -- won't slow or stop, short of global catastrophe. Can't see one region, any region, shaping the planet the way that Silicon Valley and its companies have done over the past half-a-century. So, like sports fans enjoying future Hall of Fame athletes, enjoy the great valley and tech companies while they're still bastions of Corporate America, the Four Horsemen of our economy. (See BusinessWeek, "The Four Horsemen of the New Economy" by Spencer Ante.) A generation or two from now, when their histories are being written, they'll look very, very different.
"Density" by Marcin Wichary, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com.
"Computer History Museum" by dmealiffe, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com.
"The Meaning of Life" by jurvetson, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com.
Dr. Darshan Brar working in an IRRI greenhouse (167ps_01109) by IRRI Images, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com.
"Shanghai Science and Technology Museum Metro Station" by Wolfgang Staudt, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com.
"Nanobamas" by oceandesetoiles, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com.